ForkCast: Predictive Recovery for Vision-Language-Action Policies via Counterfactual Futures
arXiv:2610.18650v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vision-language-action (VLA) policies perform manipulation tasks using camera images and language instructions, but object slip or visual occlusion can disrupt execution. Recovery is typically learned during policy training or delegated to a monitor that triggers a scripted repair after detecting a failure. We introduce ForkCast, a predictive recovery framework that compares counterfactual futures to determine whether and how to intervene in a frozen VLA policy. At each decision point, ForkCast evaluates three candidates: executing the policy's nominal action chunk (Commit), adjusting the camera viewpoint (Reobserve), and replanning the arm trajectory (Replan). A candidate-conditioned world model forecasts the latent outcome of each candidate at a common future horizon, and a shared task-progress head scores the predicted outcomes. By evaluating the policy's own continuation alongside the repair candidates, a single comparison based on ta