News & Research

arXiv:2606.02020v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper investigates the entropy dynamics of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and uncovers a consistent two-phase structure: an Uncertainty Region of exploration transitioning sharply to a Confidence Region of convergence. We demonstrate that the Confidence Region possesses two critical properties: 1) High Reliability -- answers in the confidence region become highly accurate and stable, and 2) High Redundancy -- models generate unnecessary tokens long after reaching the correct answer. These properties unlock more efficient and reliable inference strategies: 1) Early Exit leverages reliability and redundancy to terminate computation safely when returns diminish, and 2)Test-Time Scaling uses the Confidence Region signal to prioritize converged trajectories. To operationalize these insights, we formulate Confidence Region detection as a sequential change-point detection problem, being the first to apply classical change-point methods to monitor

arXiv:2606.02047v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce Convex Distance Operator Transport (CDOT), the first convex optimal transport framework that aligns distributions across heterogeneous domains by jointly preserving feature correspondence and intrinsic geometric structure. Specifically, CDOT employs an operator-based regularization that aligns aggregated distance structures by introducing distance and conditional expectation operators. Consequently, the proposed regularization improves the robustness to local geometric variations. We further prove that the resulting CDOT discrepancy is a valid pseudometric on the space of attributed compact metric-measure spaces. In addition, we characterize the relationship between CDOT and Gromov--Wasserstein (GW) through a new notion of dispersion gap, formally elucidating the geometric source of non-convexity in GW compared to the convexity of CDOT. In the finite-sample regime, we derive a non-asymptotic risk bound decomposed into optim

arXiv:2606.02055v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study exact community recovery in the two-community stochastic block model on $n$ vertices under limited and noisy access to network data. The learner may query a noisy neighborhood oracle that reveals each true neighbor of a queried vertex independently with fixed probability and never returns non-neighbors, subject to a finite query budget. We consider both oracle-only access and a combined model where the learner also observes a single subsampled copy of the underlying graph. For oracle-only access, balanced uniform querying gives a sharp non-adaptive benchmark: when each vertex is queried the same integer number of times, the observations reduce to an SBM with attenuated edge probabilities and the Abbe-Bandeira-Hall exact-recovery threshold applies. We show that this benchmark is not adaptively optimal: a two-stage adaptive strategy succeeds with $n+o(n)$ queries in a regime where balanced uniform querying requires $m n$ queries

arXiv:2606.02101v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper proposes a method of creating synthetic data (SD) that will have two important advantages for the user compared to other methods currently available. The first is transparency; unlike other methods, the person in receipt of the SD will know which of the relationships between variables in the original data will be approximately maintained in the SD. The second is a guarantee that the SD is derived from information that has already been judged to be free of disclosure risk. This is achieved by first defining and calculating the margins where relationships between variables will be maintained in the SD. Each margin will then be subject to statistical disclosure control (SDC) to the standards defined by the data custodian, e.g. top-coding and bottom-coding, combination of small categories and/or modifying small counts. Further adjustment of the curated margins is advised by coarsening all counts in the table to multiples of the d

arXiv:2606.02115v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations is a classical statistical problem of much importance in many scientific fields. Recent work of Tapia Costa et al. (2026) introduced a novel technique for estimating the drift when the diffusion parameter is known, using discrete samples from multiple trajectories. Their method treats drift estimation as a denoising problem, and leverages tools from (conditional) score-matching diffusion models. Although their experiments showed promising results across different drift classes, the question of theoretical guarantees for their estimator was left unanswered. In this note, we address this gap by exploiting techniques from diffusion model theory. More concretely, we derive an explicit risk bound for the time-averaged mean-squared error of said drift estimator. Our bound decomposes the risk into the (i) Euler-Maruyama discretization, (ii) score/denoiser approximation, (iii) noise init

arXiv:2606.02117v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Probabilistic time series forecasting has attracted increasing attention in financial applications due to the need to quantify risk and uncertainty in future observations. We propose ProbRes, a post-hoc probabilistic calibration method that explicitly learns and incorporates volatility dynamics into probabilistic forecasting, enabling effective handling of heteroskedastic data. During training, ProbRes employs two architecture-agnostic modules to separately model the conditional mean and conditional volatility. At the inference stage, it generates predictive distributions by resampling normalized residuals. ProbRes is applicable to both univariate and multivariate time series and remains robust under a wide range of error distributions, including non-Gaussian innovations with conditional heteroskedasticity. Theoretical results demonstrate ProbRes's validity and experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that ProbRes accu

arXiv:2606.02231v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Temporal systems often exhibit non-stationary behaviour, such as seasonal climate variation or glucose fluctuations in patients with type-1 diabetes. One way to model non-stationarity is through discrete latent regimes, i.e., stationary segments of time. Such systems induce a Markov Switching Model (MSM), a class of Hidden Markov Models with autoregressive dependencies among latent regimes and observed variables. Identifying latent regimes is challenging in the presence of frequent regime switches and nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamics, particularly when there are instantaneous effects between the variables, e.g., due to slow rates of measurements. In this work, we establish the identifiability of both latent regimes and regime-dependent causal structures under temporal regime dependencies, nonlinear lagged and instantaneous effects, and independent noise from the exponential family. Our identifiability theory subsumes non-temporal mix

arXiv:2606.02247v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Shapley values are a principled attribution measure widely used in interpretable machine learning, but their exact computation scales exponentially with the number of players, motivating a wide range of approximation methods based on value function evaluations of sampled coalitions. This raises the question of whether approximation accuracy can be improved by adaptively selecting coalitions for evaluation based on previous evaluations. This is particularly relevant in settings where the value function is costly and the number of evaluations is severely limited, such as retraining-based feature importance, data valuation, and hyperparameter importance. For this purpose, we propose ShaplEIG, a Bayesian experimental design approach that approximates the expensive value function using a Gaussian process surrogate and adaptively selects coalitions based on their expected information gain about the Shapley values. By the linearity of the Shap

arXiv:2606.02278v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: State-space models are traditionally based on physical knowledge, but multi-step predictions from these physical models can be poor due to model inaccuracy. Black-box deep learning has shown promise as an alternative. However, these methods rely on the availability of large datasets and potentially available physical knowledge is neglected. We propose the PG-RSSNN, a physics-guided recurrent state-space neural network that incorporates recurrent structures to enable the use of non-saturating activation functions in multi-step prediction. It mitigates the vanishing gradients and eliminates the risk of numerical divergence in training seen in existing structures that feed back state estimates. Results across multiple systems with various physical model imperfections, from linear state-space models with Gaussian noise to a robotic arm and a cascaded water tank system, show that the proposed PG-RSSNN maintains stable training behavior, and

arXiv:2606.02341v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Underwater acoustic classification has a wide array of oceanic applications, but faces challenges due to an increasingly complex acoustic environment. Waveform and spectrogram representations have been primarily used as acoustic data features for classification tasks in this domain. Spectrograms model harmonic dependencies, but these reduced representations can filter out acoustic features relevant for discrimination. While phase information from the waveform allows full characterization of the signal, the original waveform can be noisy and complex, rendering this representation difficult for models to process directly. This paper proposes a dual-encoder neural architecture to simultaneously process acoustic waveforms and spectrograms, leveraging pre-trained backbones and parameter-efficient fine-tuning modules, enabling a domain adaptation. To combine these adapted branches, a novel differentiable fuzzy aggregation mechanism based on t

arXiv:2606.02345v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many machine learning problems, including similarity learning, ranking, and clustering, rely on empirical pairwise loss functions whose quadratic computational cost quickly becomes prohibitive at scale. We demonstrate how a frugal approach that retains only a fraction of the available information on pairs can achieve estimation or optimization performance comparable to that obtained by using all pairs, by leveraging survey sampling techniques. A central finding, supported by both theory and experiments, is that such sampling plans must target pairs directly rather than individual observations. In particular, for pairwise losses between high-dimensional vectors such as embeddings in vision or graph learning, assigning higher inclusion probabilities to informative pairs using suitable auxiliary information yields performance close to full pairwise evaluation, providing a principled and theoretically grounded trade-off between accuracy and

arXiv:2606.02423v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) can serve as helpful assistants, yet they can equally function as harm amplifiers that enable malicious users to achieve harmful outcomes beyond their capabilities through extended interactions. This risk manifests along two axes, i.e., democratizing domain expertise that allows novices to produce specialized harmful content, and scaling harmful operations at volumes that manual effort cannot match. Existing works, however, often overlook how LLMs compound harm across multi-turn conversations. We introduce HarmAmp, a new benchmark for multi-turn harm amplification scenarios spanning twelve risk categories. Each scenario is grounded in real-world threats and satisfies rigorous criteria, i.e., substantive amplification, operational specificity, and multi-turn necessity. We further propose TrajSafe, a proactive monitor that anticipates harmful trajectories and intervenes through actions such as probing users' g

arXiv:2606.02427v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Existing evaluations of neural operators and in-context operator learning rely primarily on prediction error, but accurate output prediction does not guarantee the correct local dynamical structure. A model may match solutions while exhibiting incorrect sensitivities, distorted frequency response, spurious mode coupling, or unstable tangent behavior. We introduce a Jacobian-based spectral audit for in-context operator learning. For a fixed prompt, we differentiate the network output with respect to the query function and view the resulting Jacobian as a learned tangent operator. Projecting it onto Fourier modes, we obtain a local spectral characterization of the inferred operator, including frequency-dependent gains, phase structure, and cross-mode coupling. The audit complements standard prediction metrics by testing whether the model reproduces local mechanisms of the underlying PDE operator rather than only outputs. Across benchmarks

arXiv:2606.02475v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Classical finite-difference solvers remain reliable tools for partial differential equations, but their efficiency depends on where mesh resolution is placed. Uniform refinement can waste degrees of freedom when solution difficulty is localised near sharp gradients, fronts, oscillations, or constraint-sensitive regions. This paper studies a hybrid strategy in which a physics-informed neural network (PINN) is used not as the final solver, but as an off-grid residual probe for adaptive mesh refinement. The PINN residual is sampled over the domain, converted into cellwise indicators, and used to guide refinement before the final approximation is computed by a finite-difference solver. The method is evaluated on three benchmarks. The main full-solver validation uses the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation with a nonuniform finite-difference solve on the adapted meshes. PINN-threshold refinement attains final relative $L^2$ error $0.021

arXiv:2606.02507v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Inverse materials design is shifting materials discovery from forward prediction to targeted proposal of candidates that satisfy objectives under physical constraints. Here, we review recent advances in generative crystal structure modeling, multimodal learning, and closed-loop design pipelines for crystalline solids. We survey how modern generators learn chemical-structural priors from large databases to enable controllable sampling of periodic structures, and compare leading model classes including variational autoencoders, normalizing flows, autoregressive formulations, and diffusion models. Particular attention is given to how feasibility constraints and physical priors are enforced across the workflow, through representation choices, training objectives, sampling-time guidance, and post-generation screening and relaxation. We also discuss how multimodal learning fuses diverse materials modalities, including crystal structures, ther