Research Papers

arXiv:2502.00753v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Smoothness is crucial for attaining fast rates in first-order optimization. However, many optimization problems in modern machine learning involve non-smooth objectives. Recent studies relax the smoothness assumption by allowing the Lipschitz constant of the gradient to grow with respect to the gradient norm, which accommodates a broad range of objectives in practice. Despite this progress, existing generalizations of smoothness are restricted to Euclidean geometry with $\ell_2$-norm and only have theoretical guarantees for optimization in the Euclidean space. In this paper, we address this limitation by introducing a new $\ell*$-smoothness concept that measures the norm of Hessians in terms of a general norm and its dual, and establish convergence for mirror-descent-type algorithms, matching the rates under the classic smoothness. Notably, we propose a generalized self-bounding property that facilitates bounding the gradients v

arXiv:2502.18834v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies. Not surprisingly, this area has attracted considerable attention from researchers, who have proposed a wide range of methods based on various backbones. However, the evaluation of the area often exhibits three systemic limitations: 1. Failure to account for the full spectrum of stock movement patterns observed in dynamic financial markets. (Diversity Gap), 2. The absence of unified assessment protocols undermines the validity of cross-study performance comparisons. (Standardization Deficit), and 3. Neglect of critical market structure factors, resulting in inflated performance metrics that lack practical applicability. (Real-World Mismatch). Addressing these limitations, we propose FinTSB, a comprehensive and practical benchmark for finan

arXiv:2505.17630v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Circuit localization methods aim to identify the subset of model components responsible for specific behaviors in large language models, enabling detailed mechanistic analysis. Most existing methods assume components act independently and estimate importance by perturbing each component in isolation. However, components in neural networks interact, and ignoring these interactions leads to systematic misestimation of component importance. We find that one particularly problematic interaction is attention self-repair, in which softmax redistribution causes gradients for influential attention scores to vanish as other positions with similar values compensate. We introduce Gradient Interaction Modifications (GIM), a technique that explicitly accounts for feature interactions during backpropagation. GIM achieves state-of-the-art performance on the circuit localization track of the Mechanistic Interpretability Benchmark and outperform

arXiv:2505.18614v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Lyrics translation requires both accurate semantic transfer and preservation of musical rhythm, syllabic structure, and poetic style. In animated musicals, the challenge intensifies due to alignment with visual and auditory cues. We introduce Multilingual Audio-Video Lyrics Benchmark for Animated Song Translation (MAVL), the first multilingual, multimodal benchmark for singable lyrics translation. By integrating text, audio, and video, MAVL enables richer and more expressive translations than text-only approaches. Building on this, we propose Syllable-Constrained Audio-Video LLM with Chain-of-Thought SylAVL-CoT, which leverages audio-video cues and enforces syllabic constraints to produce natural-sounding lyrics. Experimental results demonstrate that SylAVL-CoT significantly outperforms text-based models in singability and contextual accuracy, emphasizing the value of multimodal, multilingual approaches for lyrics translation.

arXiv:2505.19925v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The sample covariance matrix is a cornerstone of multivariate statistics, but it is highly sensitive to outliers. These can be casewise outliers, such as cases belonging to a different population, or cellwise outliers, which are deviating cells (entries) of the data matrix. Recently some robust covariance estimators have been developed that can handle both types of outliers, but their computation is only feasible up to at most 20 dimensions. To remedy this we propose the cellRCov method, a robust covariance estimator that simultaneously handles casewise outliers, cellwise outliers, and missing data. It relies on a decomposition of the covariance on principal and orthogonal subspaces, leveraging recent work on robust PCA. It also employs a ridge-type regularization to stabilize the estimated covariance matrix. We establish some theoretical properties of cellRCov, including its casewise and cellwise influence functions as well as

arXiv:2505.22961v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have shown promising potential in persuasion, but existing works on training LLM persuaders are still preliminary. Notably, while humans are skilled in modeling their opponent's thoughts and opinions proactively and dynamically, current LLMs struggle with such Theory of Mind (ToM) reasoning, resulting in limited diversity and opponent awareness. To address this limitation, we introduce Theory of Mind Augmented Persuader (ToMAP), a novel approach for building more flexible persuader agents by incorporating two theory of mind modules that enhance the persuader's awareness and analysis of the opponent's mental state. Specifically, we begin by prompting the persuader to consider possible objections to the target central claim, and then use a text encoder paired with a trained MLP classifier to predict the opponent's current stance on these counterclaims. Our carefully designed reinforcement learning sche

arXiv:2506.02075v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The current state of evaluation in survival analysis is plagued by the persistent use of evaluation metrics in ways that are misaligned with the stated modeling objective. In addition, many such evaluations are based on censoring assumptions that are left implicit or unjustified. This means that the reported performance can be misleading and may fail to answer the scientific or modeling question the evaluation was intended to address. In this position paper, we critically examine evaluation practices in survival analysis and highlight how censoring makes evaluation fundamentally different from standard regression or classification. We place particular focus on concordance-based measures, such as the C-index, which we show are heavily overused in the literature. To help identify appropriate metrics, we propose a set of key desiderata and introduce a double-helix ladder, in which valid evaluation requires alignment between metric

arXiv:2506.10677v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study A/B testing, the standard protocol for measuring the performance gain of a new decision system relative to a baseline. Traditional A/B testing treats both systems as black boxes, ignoring potential similarities between them. In practice, however, new and baseline systems are rarely radically different and often share significant structure, which can be captured by their propensities to make similar decisions. We show that in such cases, the commonly used difference-in-means estimator, though unbiased, is statistically suboptimal. Leveraging off-policy estimation, we introduce a family of A/B testing estimators that exploit the propensities of the tested systems to achieve improved concentration properties. This family is flexible enough to be tailored to practical decision-making. The resulting estimators are simple, robust to propensities misspecification, substantially more accurate when the tested systems exhibit sim

arXiv:2506.22666v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The rise of API-only access to state-of-the-art LLMs highlights the need for effective black-box jailbreak methods to identify model vulnerabilities in real-world settings. Without a principled objective for gradient-based optimization, most existing approaches rely on genetic algorithms, which are limited by their initialization and dependence on manually curated prompt pools. Furthermore, these methods require individual optimization for each prompt, failing to provide a comprehensive characterization of model vulnerabilities. To address this gap, we introduce VERA: Variational infErence fRamework for jAilbreaking. VERA casts black-box jailbreak prompting as a variational inference problem, training a small attacker LLM to approximate the target LLM's posterior over adversarial prompts. Once trained, the attacker can generate diverse, fluent jailbreak prompts for a target query without re-optimization. Experimental results sho

arXiv:2507.07339v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our f

arXiv:2509.03456v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Off-policy evaluation (OPE) and off-policy learning (OPL) are foundational for decision-making in offline contextual bandits. Recent advances in OPL primarily optimize OPE estimators with improved statistical properties, assuming that better estimators inherently yield superior policies. Although theoretically justified, this estimator-centric approach neglects a critical practical obstacle: challenging optimization landscapes. In this paper, we provide theoretical insights and empirical evidence showing that current OPL methods encounter severe optimization issues, particularly as the action space grows. We show that estimator-aware policy parametrization can mitigate, but not fully resolve, optimization challenges. Building on this, we explore simpler weighted log-likelihood objectives and demonstrate that they enjoy substantially better optimization properties and still recover competitive, often superior, learned policies. O

arXiv:2510.09260v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent work has shown that RLHF is highly susceptible to backdoor attacks. However, existing methods often rely on rare tokens or fixed triggers, limiting their impact in realistic scenarios. In this work, we develop GREAT, a novel framework for crafting natural distributional backdoors in RLHF. Specifically, GREAT targets harmful response generation for a vulnerable user subpopulation featured by semantically violent requests paired with emotionally angry triggers. At the core of our framework is a trigger identification pipeline that operates in the model's latent embedding space, leveraging dimensionality reduction and clustering techniques to identify representative triggers. To enable this, we introduce a hierarchical and diversity-driven prompting strategy to construct Erinyes, a high-quality dataset of over 5,000 angry triggers curated from GPT-4.1. Our experiments show that GREAT significantly outperforms baselines in at

arXiv:2510.09288v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The vulnerability of machine learning models to adversarial attacks remains a critical societal security challenge. Traditional defenses, such as adversarial training, typically robustify models by minimizing a worst-case loss. These deterministic approaches do not account for uncertainty in the adversary's attack. While stochastic defenses placing a probability distribution on the adversary exist, they often lack statistical rigor and fail to make explicit their underlying assumptions. To resolve these issues, we introduce a formal Bayesian framework that models adversarial uncertainty through a stochastic channel, articulating all probabilistic assumptions. This yields two robustification strategies: a proactive defense enacted during training, aligned with adversarial training, and a reactive defense enacted during operations, aligned with adversarial purification. Several state-of-the-art defenses can be recovered as limitin

arXiv:2510.11713v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Real-world applications of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) often require reasoning about changing prompts or environments. In this work, we challenge the frozen world assumption and evaluate LRM robustness under two realistic dynamic scenarios: interruptions, which test the accuracy of model responses under budget-constrained outputs, and dynamic context, which tests model adaptation to in-flight changes. Across mathematics and programming benchmarks that require long-form reasoning, static evaluations consistently overestimate robustness: even state-of-the-art LRMs, which achieve high accuracy in static settings, can fail unpredictably when interrupted or exposed to changing context, with performance dropping by up to 60% when updates are introduced late in the reasoning process. Our analysis further reveals several novel failure modes, including reasoning leakage, where models fold the reasoning into their final answer when inte

arXiv:2510.17532v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Predicting cancer treatment outcomes requires models that are both accurate and interpretable, particularly in the presence of heterogeneous clinical data. While large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance in biomedical NLP, they often lack structured reasoning capabilities critical for high-stakes decision support. We present a unified, multi-task learning framework that aligns autoregressive LLMs with clinical reasoning for outcome prediction on the MSK-CHORD dataset. Our models are trained to jointly perform binary survival classification, continuous survival time regression, and natural language rationale generation. We evaluate three alignment strategies: (1) standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT), (2) SFT with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting to elicit step-by-step reasoning, and (3) Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a reinforcement learning method that aligns model outputs to expert-derived reasonin