Informative Path Planning with Guaranteed Estimation Uncertainty
arXiv:2602.05198v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Environmental monitoring robots often need to estimate data fields (e.g., salinity, temperature, bathymetry) under tight resource constraints. Classical boustrophedon lawnmower surveys provide geometric coverage guarantees but can waste effort by oversampling predictable regions. In contrast, informative path planning (IPP) methods leverage spatial correlations to reduce oversampling, yet typically offer no guarantees on estimation quality. This paper bridges these approaches by addressing IPP with guaranteed estimation uncertainty in complex environments: computing the shortest path whose measurements ensure that the Gaussian process (GP) posterior variance -- an intrinsic uncertainty measure that lower-bounds the mean-squared prediction error under the GP model -- is upper bounded by a user-specified threshold over the monitoring region. We propose a three-stage approach for efficient environmental monitoring: (i) learning a GP mode