Research Papers

arXiv:2605.23696v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Effectively managing Air Traffic Control Officer (ATCO) workload is crucial in maintaining operational safety. Group supervisors use tools that estimate upcoming traffic load to aid decision-making. However, industry-standard models can fail to capture the nuances of upcoming air traffic complexity. This study presents a probabilistic approach to forecast the complexity of an airspace sector using the number of relevant aircraft pairs, i.e., those that require monitoring or deconfliction by a controller, as a proxy measure for ATCO workload. We adapted an existing filter algorithm to make it suitable for use in London Middle Sector (LMS), a complex airspace sector with multiple flows of traffic above some of the busiest airports in Europe. Through iterative feedback with ATCOs, the algorithm was refined and extended to handle specific geometric and operational considerations. The updated algorithm outperformed the original, with an F1-sco

arXiv:2605.23726v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We prove optimal sampling bounds achieving $(1\pm\varepsilon)$-relative error for a broad class of Lipschitz continuous classification loss functions under various regularization terms. This includes important functions such as logistic and sigmoid loss, hinge loss, and ReLU loss, as prominent and popular representative examples. In particular, we prove $k^2/\varepsilon^2$ upper and lower bounds for $\|\cdot\|_2/k$ regularization, and $k/\varepsilon^2$ upper and lower bounds for $\|\cdot\|_1/k$ regularization. For $\|\cdot\|_2^2/k$ regularization, the sampling complexity depends mainly on a bounded derivative property: if $|g'(x)|\leq g(x)$, and $g(0)>0$, and $g$ is monotonic or convex, then it admits linear in $k$ sampling complexity; otherwise the general bound is $k^2/\varepsilon^2$. However, if $g(0)=0$, our results indicate that no dimension-free bounds are possible, and even sublinear bounds are ruled out. All upper bounds are compl

arXiv:2605.23744v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Anomaly detection in multivariate time series (MTS) is hindered by dynamic inter-variable dependencies and feature entanglement under spectral noise, and in practice, is further complicated by the absence of anomaly labels. Existing reconstruction-based detectors tend to recover anomalies as faithfully as normal patterns, while prevailing graph contrastive methods enforce invariance across views and thus assume a stationary relational structure, an assumption that breaks under structural drift in real systems. We propose ContrastAD, an unsupervised framework that turns structural evolution itself into a learning signal rather than suppressing it. A Multi-Perspective Embedder encodes inputs from temporal, attribute, and structural perspectives. A Frequency-Aware Attention Mixer then performs spectral top-K filtering before attention, preventing noise from leaking into query-key similarities. The core component, a Dynamic Graph Contrastive

arXiv:2605.23751v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We revisit the I/O complexity of attention in large language models. Given query-key-value matrices $Q,K,V\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$, and a machine with fast memory size $M$, the goal is to compute the "attention matrix" $A=\text{softmax}(Q K ^{\top}/\sqrt{d}) V$ with the minimal number of data transfers between fast and slow memory. Existing methods in the literature, most notably FlashAttention and its variants, incur an I/O cost that depends quadratically on $n$, while a trivial lower bound only requires $\Omega(nd)$ I/O's to read the inputs and write the output. In this work, we present a technique for computing attention where the I/O cost only depends almost-linearly on $n$ in most parameter regimes. This is achieved by developing I/O-efficient algorithms inspired by the recent approximate attention framework of Alman and Song. We also prove corresponding lower bounds in each parameter regime to show that our algorithms are indeed c

arXiv:2605.23753v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Knowledge graphs (KGs) offer a rich representation for relational knowledge, but their irregular structure makes retrieval challenging: ego-graph expansion grows rapidly, and dense embedding methods struggle with multi-hop compositional queries. Existing agent-based graph exploration approaches, while expressive, are often too expensive for large-scale retrieval. We introduce SeedER (Seed-and-Expand Retrieval), a retrieval framework that explicitly leverages KG structure through iterative, low-cost expansion. SeedER first seeds a compact set of core nodes using lightweight dense and entity-based retrieval, then selectively expands this set via a learned graph-aware policy trained with reinforcement learning. This design decomposes global reasoning into reusable local decisions, enabling efficient discovery of query-relevant nodes while tightly controlling expansion cost. We show theoretical limitations of dense retrieval on compositional

arXiv:2605.23754v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Developing constitutive models that capture how materials deform under load traditionally requires years of specialized expertise in continuum mechanics, machine learning, and scientific programming. Large language models (LLMs) have recently been shown to lower this barrier by generating constitutive models on demand, but existing single-agent pipelines lack systematic checks that the resulting models respect fundamental physical laws. To close this gap, we introduce the first multi-agent LLM-driven approach for constitutive model generation: a Creator agent proposes a model tailored to the data, while an Inspector agent critically audits each proposal against nine physical constraints and returns it for refinement whenever a violation is detected. We demonstrate this concept with constitutive artificial neural networks (CANNs) and benchmark it on brain tissue, experimental rubber, and synthetic rubber, using two different LLM backbones

arXiv:2605.23857v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Knowledge distillation generally assumes a strong-to-weak relationship where stronger teachers yield better students. In this work, we examine this assumption about distillation in large language model pretraining. By varying architecture sizes and training token budgets, we create strong-to-weak, same-level, and weak-to-strong teacher-student relationships, and study distillation's effectiveness under each. We find that the teacher need not be strong: with proper mixing of the language modeling and knowledge distillation losses, even small and undertrained teachers improve larger students. At the same time, a stronger teacher is not always better: pushing the teacher further, through more parameters or more training tokens, can saturate or even reverse the distillation gains. We further observe that distillation improves generalization (out-of-distribution and downstream performance) more readily than in-domain fitting. Together, these r

arXiv:2605.23872v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce training-free looped transformers, in which a lightweight inference-time wrapper loops a contiguous mid-stack block of layers of a frozen checkpoint without additional fine-tuning, continued training, or architectural changes. Unlike prior looped transformer methods that train with the looped structure end-to-end, we retrofit recurrence onto pretrained models at test time. We show that naive block reapplication usually degrades performance, highlighting the importance of the loop application strategy. Motivated by viewing a pre-norm transformer block as a forward Euler step on an ODE, we instead treat looping as a refinement of the same approximation, replacing one large update with smaller damped sub-steps. Across seven dense, sparse MoE, and MLA+MoE model families, our method improves Qwen3-4B-Instruct by +2.64 pp on MMLU-Pro, Qwen3-30B-A3B-Instruct by +1.14 pp on CommonsenseQA, and Moonlight-16B-A3B-Instruct by +1.20 pp on

arXiv:2605.23893v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose Complete-muE, a framework which targets hyperparameter transfer across dense FFN and any Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) setups in transformer blocks. Existing tools such as $\mu$P (requires fixed architectue) or SDE (requires fixed per-step token count) cannot directly solve the hyperparameter transfer problem in MoE setups because Dense to MoE transfer or MoE total experts scaling changes both architecture and tokens per expert. Complete-muE solves this challenge with a two-bridge system: Bridge~I maps between dense FFN and Dense MoE by active-width $\mu$P with a normalized router scale. Bridge~II maps between Dense MoE and sparse MoE by activated-expert scaling, where the first-order SDE LR/WD correction cancels while a bounded residual $\sigma_0$ shift remains. The resulting transfer rule, which we term as Complete muE, covers changes in activated experts, total capacity, granularity, and shared/group-balanced hybrids for MoE mode

arXiv:2602.13480v2 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Launchpads have become the dominant mechanism for issuing memecoins, exposing investors to a new class of high-risk launches that existing rug-pull detection methods cannot capture. We argue that detecting these threats requires structured behavioral traces that underlie raw heterogeneous blockchain data, i.e., how insiders accumulate, coordinate, and unwind positions. To enable such analysis, we introduce MELT (MEmecoin Launch Trace, the first behavioral trace dataset for analyzing and detecting high-risk memecoin launches on Solana. MELT covers 41k+ memecoin launches with 200M+ transactions parsed into typed behavioral records that distinguish swaps, wash trades, transfers, and mints. Beyond per-account behaviors, MELT contributes bundle-trace data that links accounts controlled by the same entity, revealing that, on average, 36.5% of token supply is held by coordinated accounts, a concealment strategy that disguises the true ownershi

arXiv:2605.22836v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Rapid earthquake magnitude estimation is crucial for effective early warning systems that can save lives and reduce economic damage. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of magnitude classification using only the vertical component of the initial 7-second P-wave window from a single station. We compare six machine learning approaches that range from traditional models to state-of-the-art deep learning architectures. We also curated a novel dataset of 7,318 earthquake events in South Asia. The dataset was categorized into five Richter-scale classes: slight (3.0-3.9), light (4.0-4.9), moderate (5.0-5.9), strong (6.0-6.9) and severe (>= 7.0). Our experiments show that deep learning models substantially outperform traditional approaches. Our Transformer based architecture achieved 76.23% standard accuracy and 81.56% adaptive accuracy with 4.8 ms inference latency. The adaptive-accuracy metric is introduced for the inherent uncert

arXiv:2605.22845v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Finite element simulations of large-deformation sheet material forming involve node-element coupling between nodal kinematics and element-level deformation measures. Machine-learning surrogates can accelerate such simulations, but most graph-based models use node-centred representations. This representation is indirect for element-level quantities, which are often recovered from nodal predictions by interpolation or post-processing. It may also obscure the node-element coupling structure that underlies the finite element update. This work proposes a cross-attention-based bipartite graph neural network (CAtt-BiGNN) for coupled prediction of nodal displacement increments and elemental thinning. The graph represents mesh nodes and elements as distinct but connected entities, linked by directed node-element edges, so that nodal and elemental fields are predicted on their native discretisation domains. An edge-aware cross-attention processor

arXiv:2605.22848v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Global food security depends on predicting crop responses to climate variability, yet process based crop models remain too computationally expensive for large scale exploration of genotype and environment interactions. Here we develop a probabilistic neural emulator of APSIM that reproduces key maize growth processes across 13 outputs with high fidelity (with R^2 of 0.93) while reducing simulation time by several orders of magnitude. Trained on two million simulations spanning diverse genetic, soil, and management conditions, and augmented with a convolutional synthetic weather generator that produces physically consistent climate sequences, the framework enables scalable exploration of crop responses under realistic and diverse environmental inputs while providing calibrated predictive uncertainty without costly Bayesian inference. Applying this framework across 100,000 trait configurations, six soil environments in Iowa and Illinois,

arXiv:2605.22851v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Photoplethysmography (PPG) has become a ubiquitous physiological signal; however, current generative models still struggle to preserve realistic waveform morphology and learn a latent structure that captures cardiac and respiratory physiology. PPG generators trained with adversarial losses can produce plausible waveforms, but provide no inference path from a real signal to a latent representation. Variational autoencoders, on the other hand, map the PPG data to latent codes, although their decoders often blur systolic upstrokes and dampen amplitude and spectral details. Diffusion models improve waveform fidelity, but typically lack an inference path for reconstruction and physiological analysis. We propose VampPrior Latent Diffusion (VAMP-Diff), a jointly trained variational diffusion model that combines a temporal PPG encoder, a conditional one-dimensional diffusion decoder, and VampPrior regularization on a compact pooled latent. The

arXiv:2605.22853v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many modern datasets are large and carry complex structural relationships. Graph-based methods have traditionally been used to represent networked data, modeling individual elements as nodes and pairwise interactions as edges. Furthermore, Graph Signal Processing (GSP) has been developed to analyze signals on graph nodes, such as temperature measurements (node signals) across different regions of a country represented as a graph. Topological Signal Processing (TSP) is an emerging field that generalizes GSP, enabling the analysis of signals defined not only on nodes but also on edges, triangles, and higher-dimensional network elements, modeled as simplicial complexes and related topological structures. This makes TSP naturally well-suited for studying higher-order interactions in complex systems by extending classical signal processing concepts, such as filtering and Fourier transforms, to the topological level. Despite its versatility,