Research Papers

arXiv:2605.24009v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) have exhibited a bias towards underestimating CAPE values during the summertime. We train an artificial intelligence (AI) diffusion model to improve the skill and uncertainty quantification of afternoon 6-hour lead time ensemble forecasts over the United States. Our model takes a GFS CAPE forecast as input and outputs an ensemble that significantly outperforms both GFS and GEFS 6-hour forecasts on root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and Brier score. We propose a two-stage training pipeline to leverage both a larger historical GFS forecast dataset and a smaller historical GEFS dataset, despite the two using initialization and parameterization schemes that v

arXiv:2605.24019v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Vision-Language Models (VLMs) achieve outstanding performance, yet their huge model size severely hinders deployment on edge devices with limited resources. As an efficient model compression technique, vector quantization (VQ) excels in ultra-low-bit representation, which maps model weights to discrete codewords in a compact codebook to cut memory consumption and transmission overhead while preserving model capability. Direct VQ application to VLMs still has two core limitations. First, cross-modality weight distribution differences brought by visual and textual inputs cannot be well fitted by a single unified codebook. Second, current second-order error compensation ignores first-order gradient information, causing weight deviation from pre-trained optimal states, gradient drift and biased compensation results. This work proposes MGVQ, a novel vector quantization framework integrating multi-dimensional sensitivity perception and gradie

arXiv:2605.24025v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large models have delivered remarkable performance across a wide range of perception and generation tasks, yet practical deployment is increasingly constrained by computational and memory budgets, as well as privacy requirements. Split execution alleviates these constraints by partitioning computation across devices, but it inevitably introduces intensive transmission and storage of intermediate features. Unlike conventional feature coding for CNNs that typically targets homogeneous spatial activation maps, modern large models generate heterogeneous features with varying statistical distributions and compression tolerances, e.g., multi-level/multi-modal representations and autoregressive context caches. These characteristics necessitate treating large model feature coding (LaMoFC) as a fundamental system component and call for a systematic evaluation framework. In this paper, we present a comprehensive benchmark and evaluation framework

arXiv:2605.24031v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the reconstruction of implied volatility surfaces from sparse and noisy option quotes using deep learning models under no-arbitrage constraints. We compare multiple neural architectures, including multilayer perceptrons, convolutional networks, U-Nets, variational autoencoders, and Transformer-based models against classical SVI parameterizations on option market data. Results show that Transformer and U-Net architectures achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, particularly under sparse observation regimes, while soft arbitrage penalties significantly reduce arbitrage violations with moderate impact on reconstruction error. We further analyze the trade-off between accuracy and arbitrage consistency across architectures and regularization strengths.

arXiv:2605.24067v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Most nowcasting systems, built on radar reflectivity, focus on current precipitation, ignoring the atmospheric precursors -- such as low-level convergence, turbulent eddies, and latent heating -- that offer a fleeting window to foresee storm birth. We introduce MeteoLogist, a physics-inspired radar intelligence framework that models the full life cycle of convection -- from its precursors to organized storm evolution. However, exploiting these precursors is non-trivial: they originate from multiple meteorological drivers -- thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical -- that evolve asynchronously (C1) and remain spatially fragmented (C2). To this end, MeteoLogist designs three tightly integrated components. The Physics-Tailored Encoders process radar echoes according to their intrinsic physical scales and semantics, forming thermodynamic, kinematic, and microphysical streams that capture distinct dynamical regimes. The Temporal-Phase Al

arXiv:2605.24072v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Finite-width fully connected neural networks with Gaussian-initialized weights deviate from their infinite-width Gaussian limit, exhibiting non-vanishing higher-order cumulants. We approximate these deviations, for a neural network evaluated in a finite number of inputs, using multidimensional Edgeworth expansions of arbitrary order $4m-1$, with $m\in\mathbb{N}$. Assuming that the corresponding Gaussian limit has an invertible covariance matrix and that the activation function is polynomially bounded, we establish a bound of order $n^{-m}$ on the total variation distance between the law of the true network output and its Edgeworth approximation, with matching lower bounds. As an application, we quantify the error in Bayesian posterior distributions when the prior is replaced by its Edgeworth expansion. Our results are more general and also apply to sequences of conditionally Gaussian vectors converging to a Gaussian vector with invertib

arXiv:2605.24073v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) require generating computationally expensive, large-scale training datasets to accurately simulate materials and molecules. Incorporating electronic structure information using multitask learning improves sample efficiency, however, training on full Hamiltonian matrices, which scale quadratically with the number of atoms, is intractable for large datasets. In this work, we show that multitask learning utilizing orbitally resolved semiempirical charges significantly improves sample efficiency and accuracy in MLIPs. To efficiently predict orbital charges, we implement a specialized equivariant model, reducing charge prediction error compared to an invariant baseline. By augmenting training with computationally inexpensive GFN1-xTB orbital charges, which scale linearly with the number of atoms, our model achieves a 46\% reduction in energy mean absolute error and requires five times less data

arXiv:2605.24076v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern Artificial Intelligence achieves remarkable predictive power by optimizing statistical risk functionals over vast corpora. Yet a gap separates this from genuine intelligence: the inability to distinguish correlation from causation. This paper argues that causal inference (identifying mechanisms invariant under intervention) is AI's indispensable statistical conscience. Without causal grounding, AI systems are correlation machines: powerful in familiar domains, brittle under distribution shift, and biased in high-stakes settings. Three contributions develop this argument. First, a Statistical Necessity Theorem for Causal Generalization: any algorithm achieving out-of-distribution generalization must encode causal structure, formalizing the distinction between prediction P(Y|X) and intelligence P(Y|do(X)). Second, a unified framework connects Pearl's do-calculus, the Potential Outcomes framework, Double Machine Learning, and Invari

arXiv:2605.24077v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine learning deployments in real-world wireless communication tasks face significant generalization challenges due to location and environment-specific signal structure, high diversity in data across different deployments, and limited availability of real-world data. Current approaches for assessing data similarity between training and inference (deployment) distributions, as well as evaluating model transferability, suffer from high computational costs and inconsistent performance, leaving critical model deployment and model life cycle management decisions without a principled foundation. To address this, we introduce a dataset similarity framework built upon the feature space of a pretrained wireless foundation model. Our method, LWM-CDE (Contrastive learning of Dataset Embedding), fine-tunes the dataset embeddings of the foundation model using a combination of contrastive and geometry-shaping losses, creating a structured manifol

arXiv:2605.24136v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the problem of identifying dynamically distinct basins of attraction in high dimensional time-homogeneous Markov processes using only trajectory sampling. This problem is fundamental in the analysis of metastable dynamical systems, where the process rapidly mixes within basins while transitions between basins occur rarely on the timescale of interest, or even when the state space is reducible. Existing approaches typically rely on spatial discretization or spectral analysis of estimated transition operators, which can become unreliable in high dimensional settings or when the underlying basin geometry is highly nonlinear. We propose a discriminative approach to basin identification based on marginal trajectory distribution comparison. We prove a simple risk separation result: if two initial states belong to the same basin, the Bayes-optimal classifier distinguishing their marginal trajectory distributions achieves risk close to

arXiv:2605.24144v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance across diverse domains but remain inefficient during the autoregressive decoding phase. Unlike the prefill stage, which employs compute-bound GEMM operations, decoding executes a sequence of small GEMV-like computations that are memory-bound and underutilize modern accelerators. Weight-only vector quantization (VQ) has emerged as an effective compression technique that clusters model weights into a shared codebook and replaces the original weight matrix with low-precision indices, enabling 2-bit-level weight compression. While this approach substantially reduces model size and memory bandwidth, it still suffers from two critical inefficiencies: the low utilization of GEMV computation and frequent memory conflicts during codebook lookups. This paper presents EVA, an efficient vector-quantization-based architecture that addresses both computational and memory bottlenecks in

arXiv:2605.24170v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ordinary differential equation models of biochemical reactions are often formulated as stoichiometric systems in which the dynamics arise from a collection of interacting processes. A central challenge is that the functional form of each process is rarely known a priori and may be difficult to infer from data. We propose biochemically informed neural ordinary differential equations (BINODEs), a neural-ODE framework that retains the stoichiometric structure of mechanistic models while representing individual processes by neural networks. In BINODEs, the outputs of neural network processes (NNPs) are mapped to state derivatives through a linear layer analogous to a stoichiometric matrix. This architecture allows biological side information, such as process-specific inputs, sign constraints, and monotonicity assumptions, to be built directly into the model. We characterize the approximation properties of NNPs for several standard biochemic

arXiv:2605.24193v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Competitive music transcription models require large amounts of paired audio-score data, which is scarce due to collection costs, alignment difficulty, and copyright restrictions. Meanwhile, vast quantities of unpaired audio recordings and symbolic scores are freely available but have gone unused. We adopt a cycle-consistent translation framework in which a small amount of paired data acts as a minimal anchor, unlocking the full potential of the unpaired pool. We find that: unpaired data yields surprisingly large gains, especially under limited supervision; unpaired audio contributes more than unpaired scores; incorporating unlabeled audio from a new instrument during training improves transcription for that instrument without any paired supervision. Together, these results suggest that scaling unpaired data offers a practical path toward high-quality transcription for instruments where labeled data remains scarce.

arXiv:2605.24195v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sonar is often the only modality suitable for high-resolution imaging underwater due to light attenuation and turbidity. Forward-looking imaging sonar provides measurements over range and horizontal angle but collapses vertical structure into a flat image, creating ambiguities that make 3D recovery challenging. A common use case for imaging sonar is underwater terrain mapping (bathymetry), yet current methods require many views, expensive multi-sensor setups, or significant training data, which limits use and adaptability to new environments. We present a training-free method that recovers bathymetry from a single sonar image in under 30 seconds via differentiable rendering, conditioned on a known seafloor tilt. To our knowledge, this is the first differentiable rendering approach for single-view height recovery in sonar. Our method implements differentiable sonar ray tracing and optimizes an explicit height field to reproduce the targe

arXiv:2605.24339v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We present IsaacIPC, a robotic simulation framework that couples GPU accelerated incremental potential contact (IPC) with IsaacSim/Lab. IsaacIPC maps simulated deformation between simulation and visual meshes, enabling real-time realistic rendering with applications to data collection and policy evaluation. For tactile sensing, we introduce the geometric mortar contact potential (GMCP), which defines a barrier potential over contact samples on tactile surfaces to better resolve contact-pressure distributions. We evaluate GMCP on contact benchmarks and demonstrate IsaacIPC on rigid-deformable robotic simulations including a quadruped robot, a dexterous hand, and a universal manipulation interface (UMI) gripper.